Speaker visits Fulton to discuss Brexit

Brexit fallout might include Theresa May

The National Churchill Museum invited Nile Gardiner, director of The Heritage Foundation's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom in Washington, D.C., for a tour on Sunday. He also spoke as a fundraiser for the museum Saturday in St. Louis, with Brexit as the topic.
The National Churchill Museum invited Nile Gardiner, director of The Heritage Foundation's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom in Washington, D.C., for a tour on Sunday. He also spoke as a fundraiser for the museum Saturday in St. Louis, with Brexit as the topic.

For British citizens, the decision was simple: Remain in the European Union, or leave.

In June 2016, slightly more than half voted "leave" and set in motion a confusing chain of events that now is reaching a crescendo.

On Sunday, Nile Gardiner, director of the Heritage Foundation's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom in Washington, D.C. came to Fulton. He toured the National Churchill Museum and then sat down for sandwiches with a few professors and students.

Gardiner recently spoke before the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Foreign Affairs subcommittee about Brexit negotiations, and spoke again on Saturday in the St. Louis area.

On March 29 - one way or another - the goal of leaving the EU will be met, he said. But Theresa May, architect of the plan, may not be there.

May is Conservative Party leader and as such, British Prime Minister. She's said she's developed the best exit agreement, and there is no more wiggle room.

Because others feel differently, she may not make it to the end of this week, according to Gardiner. Rumors continue about whether a no-confidence vote in her leadership may be triggered by members of Parliament.

"If there are 48 letters of no confidence from the Conservative MPs (Members of Parliament), things will progress rapidly within a couple days if a simple majority of Conservative MPs vote to remove Theresa May," he said.

According to the BBC, a group of five UK cabinet ministers is expected to meet to discuss the possibility of renegotiating elements of the draft Brexit withdrawal treaty. On Nov. 14, the language of the withdrawal proposal was approved by the UK cabinet but there were two resignations, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Rabb.

On Nov. 25, there will be an EU summit to discuss the final Brexit plan. On Dec. 10, acceptance of that plan is scheduled for a vote in the British House of Commons.

"If Theresa May is defeated in the House of Commons vote on Dec. 10, I think she would step down," Gardiner said. "Theresa May is a pretty tough-skinned leader and is showing no signs of backing down on renegotiations.

"I think, in the long run, the Conservatives need a new leader. I think Boris Johnson is the best contender for that."

Johnson, who was born in New York City in 1964 to wealthy, upper middle class English parents, studied at Eton and Oxford. He was in and out of journalism and then politics, and served as mayor of London 2008-16.

Getting rid of a prime minister isn't uncommon for the Conservatives, according to Gardiner.

"Three of the last six Conservative leaders were gotten rid of," he said.

If May exits, Conservative candidates will announce their interest for leader. There will be several rounds of voting until there are two candidates, and then another vote.

"We could have a new prime minister at the end of the year, but only if Theresa May is voted out (or resigns)," Gardiner said.

The next general election in the UK is 2022.

The 28-member European Union is an economic and political partnership began after World War II to foster economic cooperation, with the theory that countries who trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with each other. It is now a single-market organization, allowing goods and people to move around member states as if they were one country. Most members share the Euro currency, but the UK retained their British pound.

Gardiner clarified the complicated issue of Brexit, aka British Exit. The vote was June 23, 2016 to remain or leave, and "leave" won by 51.9 percent. The referendum turn out was 71.8 percent with more than 30 million voting. England and Wales voted for Brexit, while Northern Ireland and Scotland solidly backed staying in the European Union.

The current draft withdrawal, according to BBC reporting, has uncomfortable details. What happens to the Ireland/Northern Ireland border? Will there be a hard border? And what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU and visa versa? What about money?

If both the EU and UK sides agree on March 29 and approve the plan, there will be a transition period until Dec. 31, 2020 when the new rules will apply.

When the Brexit vote passed, Conservative Party leader David Cameron had been serving as prime minister for six years.

"David Cameron believed there was no way on Earth he would lose (the Brexit vote) and he made the wrong bet," Gardiner said. "Cameron, to his credit, stepped down immediately."

Theresa May became prime minister, but, according to Gardiner, she's not an enthusiastic fan of Brexit.

"I think Theresa May's heart is not in Brexit; for her, this is just a day job," he said. "Margaret Thatcher would have put her heart and soul into it."

For two years (2000-02), Gardiner was an advisor to former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and co-authored a book about her.

"Margaret Thatcher is in a whole different league than a person like Theresa May," Gardiner said. "(May) had no foreign policy experience and spent very little time on the world stage."

Why Brexit?

Gardiner added that he fully supports Brexit and the security it will bring the island nation.

"It gives us total control over who comes into the country," he added. "As a EU citizen, you're entitled to move freely within the 28 member countries. (With Brexit,) if you're from Belgium, you would be treated no differently than someone from a non-EU country."

He said he worries about Islamic extremists, and said the problem with them is worse in Europe than in the United States. In part, he blames Germany's acceptance of Middle Eastern refugees. And, disentangled from the EU, Britain can independently make agreements with the United States, Canada, "and a network of English-speaking countries around the world."

"At the same time," he added, "you have a lot of home-grown terrorists as well. Brexit won't affect that."

Gardiner said the British people had years to think about severing ties to the EU. A second vote on the subject should not happen, he added.

"British people had time to debate; this was a topic of discussion for 15, 20 years," Gardiner added. "Seventy-two percent of the people voted. All the voters turned out with this once-in-a-lifetime vote and the result has to be respected. If the vote is turned over, that will be the end of democracy in Britain as we know it. It would be like turning over a presidential election (in the United States).

"They knew what they were voting for," he continued. "As long as the Conservative Party is in power, a second vote is impossible."

Impressions of the museum

Gardiner said his tour of the National Churchill Museum was fascinating.

"You really feel the spirit of Winston Churchill," he said. "It's an inspiring place, especially for people from the UK to come over and see. You don't see anything in England that matches what you see here."

The museum, on the campus of Westminster College in Fulton, is crowned by the Church of St. Mary the Virgin, Aldermanbury, a 16th century congregation once attended by writer William Shakespeare. After the church was bombed by German aircraft during the London Blitz, the college brought over the remains and reconstructed the elegant building, designed by Sir Christopher Wren.

The museum is directed by Tim Riley, also the curator.

"We can't send the church back, but we can send other objects back," he said, laughing.

(For more details about Brexit: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887)