WASHINGTON (AP) - Investors, at least, suddenly seem more confident about what the Federal Reserve will announce when it meets next week:
Nothing.
Stocks soared Monday after an influential Fed policymaker indicated she was in no hurry to raise interest rates despite intensified speculation that the Fed is poised to tighten U.S. borrowing rates.
After the speech by Lael Brainard, investors pegged the chance of a rate hike next week at just 15 percent, down from 24 percent before her remarks, according to figures from the CME Group.
In her speech in Chicago, Brainard suggested the risk that higher rates might damage a fragile economy exceeds the risk that lower rates might ignite inflation.
As a governor on the Fed's board in Washington and a close ally of Chair Janet Yellen, Brainard is seen as a key figure at the central bank. No governor has been on the losing side of a Fed vote since 2005. Presidents of the Fed's regional banks are far more likely to cast dissenting votes.
The Dow Jones industrial average soared 240 points - nearly 1.5 percent - Monday. About half the gain came after Brainard's speech.
Financial markets had been on edge after several Fed officials in recent days had signaled a willingness to resume raising rates when they meet next week. Low rates have fueled a steady rise in stock prices. Until the recent comments, investors had expected the Fed to delay a rate hike until December or later.
Brainard is among the Fed's top "doves" - officials who tend to think the central bank should be cautious about raising rates out of concern that higher rates could stifle borrowing, spending and growth.
Had she signaled a change of heart, it might have convinced investors that a hike was coming next week, especially after another perceived dove, Eric Rosengren of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, signaled a willingness to raise rates as soon as this month. Rosengren's comments - and anxiety about what Brainard might say - had sent stocks tumbling Friday.
Brainard, a former White House official in the administration of Bill Clinton and Treasury Department official in the Obama administration, is seen as a contender for a top job in a potential Hillary Clinton administration.
The Fed surfaced as a campaign issue Monday when Donald Trump accused Yellen of holding rates "artificially low" to keep the economy rolling and benefit President Barack Obama.
"She should be ashamed of herself," the Republican presidential nominee said on CNBC.
Asked about Trump's remarks, Brainard said Congress created the Fed to be independent of the executive branch and empowered it to pursue maximum employment and price stability.
"The institution is designed to ensure independence from the executive branch," Brainard said.
The Fed raised the short-term rate it controls in December for the first time since 2006. More rate hikes were expected to follow early this year, but the Fed has held off.
The global economy has been sputtering. A sharp deceleration in the Chinese economy has periodically rattled markets. And U.S. economic growth has been sluggish since late last year, dragged down by the worldwide troubles and by a strong dollar that's made U.S.-made goods pricier overseas.